Germany will not be able to meet all of its hydrogen demand from piped gas, the cheapest way of transporting hydrogen, forcing the country to rely on costlier shipping options instead, according to a new study by influential think-tank Agora Energiewende.
By 2030, Germany looks to import 45 Terawatt-hours worth of hydrogen – or 1.3 million tonnes.
According to the new study by Agora Energiewende, “pipelines are the cheapest way to import renewable hydrogen to Germany,” with estimated costs sitting below €1 per kilogramme.
Assuming all 45 TWh of Germany’s hydrogen imports are transported that way, this would translate into a €1.2 billion bill by 2030, just to cover transportation costs.
By contrast, if hydrogen is carried over longer distances by ship, similarly to liquified natural gas (LNG), “the costs rise to about €2 to €5 per kilogram of hydrogen due to the conversion back to hydrogen,” the research found.
As a result, Germany’s import bill could rise to anything between €2.5n and €7bn by 2030 – just to cover the transportation costs, according to Agora’s figures.
Moreover, the think tank cautions that technologies to carry hydrogen by ship – like transforming it into synthetic natural gas – are currently far from being mature and therefore unlikely to be competitive in the short term.
This matters because one of Germany’s many new LNG terminals in Wilhelmshaven should be turned into a synthetic hydrogen import terminal as early as 2027, according to an agreement stuck with its operator, TES.
Importing products derived from hydrogen is expected to come much more cheaply, though.
“Derivatives such as green ammonia or briquetted sponge iron (HBI) represent a particularly favourable solution at less than €1.5 per kilogramme of hydrogen,” the report said.
“But only if these materials can be processed directly without expensive conversion, for example for fertiliser or steel production.”
Similar findings are increasingly being made by German government dvisers and think tanks, who caution against being too married to the idea of keeping all energy-intensive industrial production inside the country, no matter the cost.