WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND! I’m Suzanne Lynch, bringing you Global Playbook from Dubai, where negotiators at the COP28 climate talks are trying to hammer out agreement on an ever-expanding text — and delegates are frantically Googling flights to Baku.
Bak-who? Yes, the capital of Azerbaijan is now the favorite to host next year’s climate talks, following an announcement by Azerbaijan and Armenia in the early hours of Friday morning, as flagged in Friday’s Global Playbook.
Background: The location for next year’s climate talks has been mired in dispute. It will be Eastern Europe’s turn — hosting duties rotate between the five U.N. regional groups each year — but Russia has made things difficult.
White smoke: In a surprise move, Armenia — which has been at war with its neighbor over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh — said it would support Azerbaijan’s bid, as part of a wider peace deal between the two countries. And as our own Zia Weise scooped Friday, Bulgaria withdrew its bid o host the summit, paving the way for Azerbaijan.
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Dubai it ain’t: The former Soviet republic is likely to offer a different COP experience than the glitz and glamor of the UAE, with its rich supply of five-star hotels and shiny new Expo center. But in one important way the two countries have something in common — both are oil-rich petrostates.
Not a done deal: There are still a number of hurdles to clear before Azerbaijan can be crowned the COP29 hosts — not least concern about the optics of having yet another climate summit in a fossil fuel-friendly state. Plus Baku needs formal approval from other countries. The fallback plan remains Bonn, which hosts the UNFCCC secetariat — but Germany is balking at the idea of hosting next year’s COP jamboree.
BACK AT COP28: Our ace POLITICO team has got hold of the latest draft text negotiators are working on — and in an ominous sign, the document has now grown by three pages to 27, suggesting divisions are becoming more, not less, bridgeable. Specifically, five options on how to handle the tricky issue of phasing out fossil fuels have now made it into the text. Expect a battle over this highly contentious issue.
Always look on the bright side: Meanwhile, word on the street is that COP chief Sultan al-Jaber is trying to wrap things up by Tuesday, officially the final day of COP, but a hugely ambitious timeline given that negotiations usually run over.
One reason for his haste perhaps? “Winter City,” a festive experience aimed at families, which will see Al Wasl Plaza transform into “a magical snowy Christmas wonderland,” opens on December 15 at the Expo site. That will be quite the makeover …
WHAT WE’RE WACHING TODAY
NATURE-LOVERS UNITE: Nature, land use and oceans are the thematic focus today at the Expo, with an array of events taking place across the Blue and Green zones.
Nature’s having a moment: Monica Medina, CEO and president of the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), says she has seen an increasing focus on nature as part of the solution to the climate crisis at COP, particularly since COP26 in Glasgow. “Nature is increasingly being seen as part of the solution — it’s potentially 30 percent of mitigation. We’re also trying to end deforestation by 2030,” she said.
Going au naturel: She cites the example of Pakistan, where last year’s devastating floods could have been mitigated by having natural systems in place. “Wetlands, coral reefs, mangroves act as natural brakes, or sponges, for some of the worst impacts of big storms,” she explained. “In Pakistan, the levees did not work, and the water spilled right over the top and was then trapped. What people are realizing is thatnature is a fantastic way to deal with climate stress.”
AI AT COP: The high-level event on artificial intelligence for climate action also takes place today. AI has been one of the big talking points in the global community over the past year or so, particularly since the launch of ChatGPT. (As it happens, EU negotiators in Brussels overnight finally sealed a deal on the EU’s landmark Artificial Intelligence Act after marathon negotiations.)
Don’t be scared: Kate Brandt, Google’s chief sustainability officer, told Playbook that AI and emerging technologies can be a powerful tool to tackle climate change. A recent report by Google and BCG claims it could help mitigate 5-10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
Really? One example she cites is the Green Light project. “At intersections, because cars are idling, there are 29 times more emissions than when cars are on the open road,” Brandt explained. “By using AI and Google Maps to model traffic patterns, we can make recomendations for optimizing the existing traffic light plans.” Already 12 cities, including Bangalore, Rio de Janeiro and Haifa, have signed up.
Proceed with care: Nonetheless, there have been words of warning about AI, including data privacy concerns. As Marcene Mitchell of the World Wildlife Fund told POLITICO’s Steven Overly in this week’s POLITICO Tech podcast, AI and other technologies are “only as good as the hand that’s guiding them.” Check out their fascinating discussion about the role of emerging technologies in the fight against global warming here.
DISPATCH FROM THE BLUE ZONE
HAIL TO THE CHIEF! COP28 has its fair share of autocratic regimes present, but so far Playbook has spotted only one pavilion that is offering books by its great leader. The China Pavilion in the Blue Zone is handing out free copies of “The Belt and Road Initiative” and “The Governance of China” by President Xi Jinping. Grab them while you can.
TIME FOR SOME HYGGE: Full marks to the Sweden Pavilion which was offering a delectable selection of healthy snacks including yogurt and fresh fruit when Playbook dropped by. Stock up on some Nordic nourishment.
ON THE RUNWAY: Instagram account @cop28streetstyle has been charting some of the best fashion looks at COP28. Jessica JayFavour Bwali from Zambia and Pedro Coss Sanz from Dominican Republic are rocking some of the best outfits this week (h/t Zia Weise).
FANCY A BEER? Finding a drink around town is obviously tough work, particularly at the Expo, where many of the establishments are dry. Vietnamese Foodies in the Blue Zone has a good selection of wine, beer and cocktails for sale.
SPOTTED: China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua wearing an EU tie during his meeting with EU Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra and Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister Teresa Ribera, Friday. That’s sartorial diplomacy in action.
Also spotted: Not in the Blue Zone but … U.S. climate envoy John Kerry nursing a cold aboard Green Pioneer, an ammonia-capble ship owned by Australian billionaire Andrew Forrest. Reminder: Kerry spent the final hours of COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh with coronavirus (h/t Karl Mathiesen).
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WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY
— Annual High-level Ministerial Roundtable on pre-2030 Ambition, in Meeting Room 5, Blue Zone at 10 a.m.
— High-level Event on Artificial Intelligence for Climate Action, in Meeting Room 1, Blue Zone at 1:15 p.m. Hosted by the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism and COP28 presidency.
— Women and the Changing Tide: Addressing inequities in small-scale fisheries and aquaculture, at 9 a.m. in the Resilience Hub.
— Scaling-up Nature based Solutions for Climate, Nature and People, at the EU Pavilion at 9:15 a.m.
— Delivering on Glasgow: Halting and Reversing Forest Loss by 2030, at 4:30 p.m. in the Al Waha Theater.
— Sustainable Mining for Climate Action and Social Development, at the Uganda Pavilion, Zone B6, Blue Zone, at 3:20 p.m. Speakes include Ruth Nankabirwa, Uganda’s minister of energy and mineral development.
— Towards a Climate-Neutral Economy: The Role of Carbon Pricing in Moving the Industry Closer to Net-Zero by 2050, at the EU Pavilion, at 5 p.m.
— Unleashing the green energy potential in the Middle East, North and Sub-Saharan Africa, at 10:15 a.m. at the Global Decarbonization Accelerator Connect space in the Green Zone. Hosted by the Atlantic Council.
— U.S. leadership in nuclear energy and advancing global security, hosted by the Atlantic Council, at 2 p.m. at the Global Decarbonization Accelerator Connect space. Speakers include U.S. Congress members Brandon Williams and Jeff Duncan.
— Unlocking high-integrity carbon markets to fund the global climate transition, at 3 p.m. at the McKinsey Pavilion in the Knowledge Hub.
— The state of agri-food systems in a climate crisis and the role of IPCC-IPBES and other global assessments, at the Food and Agriculture Pavilion at 11 a.m. Speakers include Jaime e Bourbon de Parme, Dutch climate envoy, IPCC Chair Jim Skea, IPBES Chair David Obura, George Wamukoya of the African Group of Negotiators Expert Support.
PROGRAMMING NOTE
SEE YOU NEXT WEEK: Playbook will be back in your inboxes Monday morning.
THANKS to Zack Colman, Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Sara Schonhardt, Jack Lahart, Seb Starcevic.
Global Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.
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Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1
