Northwest Europe remains most expensive region
Weak industrial demand weighs on prices in Asia
Blue ammonia project momentum continues
Platts blue ammonia price assessments for Far East Asia slipped to parity with values in the US in November, reflecting weaker underlying conventional ammonia demand east of Suez, while prices in Europe edged higher.
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Register Now Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed blue ammonia CFR Far East Asia at an average of $651/mt in November, just above the $649/mt seen on the US Gulf Coast, and falling from $691/mt in October, close to levels in Northwest Europe.
Northwest Europe remained the most expensive region for deliveries, while blue ammonia price indications remained relatively close to green cost production assessments for Europe.
The Platts Ammonia Price Chart illustrates monthly averages of daily assessments for gray, blue and green mmonia across a range of geographies and delivery options.
Blue ammonia is made from fossil fuel-derived hydrogen, capturing the associated CO2 emissions, while green ammonia uses hydrogen from renewables-powered water electrolysis.
Blue ammonia prices on the US Gulf coast and Northwest Europe rose slightly in November, tracking respective conventional ammonia markets.
Gray ammonia
Conventional ammonia prices softened in the Middle East, Black Sea and Asia, while rising in the US and Europe.
Persistent weak industrial sector demand in Far East Asia weighed on prices there, while production plant restarts in the Middle East dented prices there and in India.
Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden restarted its 1.089 million mt/year MPC ammonia plant, reaching full capacity in mid-November, ahead of expectations of end-November. However, both Ma’aden and Sabic had committed their production volumes under term obligations through to mid-January, limiting spot production availability.
Meanwhile, th first shipment of Russian origin ammonia to Northwest Europe since early 2022 (excluding EuroChem deliveries for its Antwerp system) arrived in Rouen, France, prompting speculation that it could open the door for Russian suppliers.
Falling gas prices in Northwest Europe in late November, to the low Eur40s/MWh, have reduced the theoretical cost of local ammonia production below import costs, potentially cutting import demand.
However, Yara announced in mid-November it would halt ammonia and urea production at its Ferrara plant for two months from the end of November for “economic reasons.”
Green ammonia
Calculated green ammonia production costs delivered to Northwest Europe ranged from $758/mt for east coast Canada origin, to $812/mt from the Middle East.
Platts renewable-power derived ammonia prices are more stable than their gas-derived counterparts as they reflect long-term levelized costs of electricity for both solar and wind generation.
These are relatively static variables onth on month, while the “delivered into” component of these assessments reflects weekly shipping prices.
Blue project development
Earlier in November, Barents Blue ammonia project developer Horisont Energi secured an offtake agreement from VNG for its project in northern Norway.
The two companies signed a letter of intent for a long-term supply of 100,000-300,000 mt/year from 2028, corresponding to 10%-30% of the plant’s planned 3,000 mt/day capacity, it said.
“The agreement with VNG marks another leap forward in the development of Barents Blue as Europe’s largest clean ammonia plant to meet the surging demand for clean ammonia and hydrogen,” Horisont Energi CEO Bjorgulf Haukelidsaeter Eidesen said in a statement.
VNG plans to market the ammonia from the project to its customers in the industrial sector, either directly or by cracking back to hydrogen.
The Barents Blue project aims to produce low-carbon hydrogen from natural gas, capturing associated CO2 emissions, with the hydroen then feeding ammonia production.
Horisont reached a further milestone, as PGNiG Upstream Norway agreed to buy a 50% stake in the Polaris carbon storage project to manage its own emissions and offer carbon management services to clients.
Polaris, with estimated capacity of 100 million mt CO2, will also store CO2 emissions from the Barents Blue project. Injections are set to begin late 2028 or early 2029.
